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Gullybet Id At Work with the Availability Heuristic

When you're betting on Gullybet Id, you'll tend to ask questions that follow this pattern:

Hard Question: How likely is it that Manchester United will win the game?

Easier Question: How well do you remember when they won their last game?

Your gut tells you to use the "availability heuristic" because the original question is hard to answer. You are asking a simple question about how well you remember the last few times United won. That makes it easy for you to make a quick yes/no decision when you're thinking about betting on Manchester United, but it also means you're not looking at the odds properly.

In his great book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahnemann goes into detail about the availability heuristic and the process that goes along with it.

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Availability Bias Also Makes Determining Probability Difficult

The availability bias makes it hard to figure out what the real odds are in other cases as well:

Since divorces of Hollywood stars get a lot of attention, you will think they are more likely than they really are.

Terrorist attacks are always talked about a lot in the news. As long as this keeps up, we overestimate how dangerous terrorist attacks are, which is strangely what makes them so effective.

We all remember goals that came right after a corner kick, which is why we tend to think corners are more dangerous than they really are.

Since it's easy to remember when a favourite has won, you will probably underestimate how likely it is that the loser will win.

How Dangerous Really Are Corners?

In their book The Numbers Game, which is very helpful, Chris Anderson and David Sally show (starting on page 24) that corners aren't always as risky as we like to think. This may surprise you, since crowds in stadiums around the world love to cheer in anticipation of corners.

At first glance, the data (the authors looked at all EPL seasons from 2001/02 to 2010/11) seems to support the traditional idea that a team with more shots on goal also gets more chances, and vice versa. But there aren't more goals when there are more chances. In the Bundesliga, Serie A, and Primera Division, there isn't much of a link between chances and goals.

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Corner Kicks: Surprising Statistics and Analysing Their Value

What's really surprising is that only 20.5% of corners result in a shot on goal in the first three touches. And only 11% of these shots go into the back of the net.

Anderson and Sally come to the conclusion that a corner kick is worth about 0.022 goals.

But you shouldn't put too much stock in what Anderson and Sally say. For example, they didn't think about the fact that not every corner is meant to lead to a goal. A good example is when a team with a small lead tries to take a corner at the end of the game to kill time. And it's important to note that some teams are much better at corners than others.

Once you take these things into account, it's likely that there will be some kind of link between corners and goals, even if it's much weaker than our gut tells us it should be.

Considering the Situation and Teams' Abilities in Corner Kicks Evaluation

When evaluating the value of corner kicks in Gullybet Id, it's essential to take into account the specific situation and intention behind each kick. Not all corner kicks are meant to directly score a goal. Sometimes, teams take corner kicks to waste time or disrupt the opponent's defence.

Furthermore, the success rate of corner kicks can vary greatly among different teams. Some teams have skilled players who are more likely to convert corner kicks into goals, while others may struggle in this aspect of their game. Therefore, it's important to analyse each team's performance and capabilities when assessing the effectiveness of corner kicks.

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